Gaia «chunga»

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 20 Aug 2017 09:42:46 GMT
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Harvey, which has degenerated into a tropical wave over the
central Caribbean Sea.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with the remnants of Harvey. Unfavorable
upper-level winds and dry air are expected to inhibit development
today. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for regeneration by Monday when the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwest Caribbean Sea, and interests
in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of
the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a
trough of low pressure. The system is currently embedded in a dry
air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to
support development in a couple of days. Therefore, tropical
cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Remnants of Harvey Graphics

Remnants of Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 02:37:51 GMT

Remnants of Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 03:24:08 GMT
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Remnants of Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 200233
TCDAT4

Remnants Of Harvey Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Harvey
earlier this evening and was unable to close off a center of
circulation.  The plane found a well-defined wind shift across the
wave axis, and winds decreased as the plane flew south along the
axis toward a pressure minimum south of 14N.  Harvey has therefore
degenerated into an open wave, and this will be the last advisory.
Maximum surface winds, as measured by the plane, remain 30 kt.  As
a side note, the associated deep convection has continued to lose
organization and is now oriented linearly from northeast to
southwest along the wave axis.

Harvey's remnants are moving quickly westward with a motion of
275/19 kt.  A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days as the wave moves
along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  A break in
the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf of
Mexico could cause the system to turn northwestward and slow down
as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche in 3-5 days.

The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, deserve a lot of
credit for showing Harvey dissipating, or at least not
strengthening, over the Caribbean Sea.  Even though the vertical
shear that has been plaguing the system is expected to diminish in
24-48 hours, the system's fast motion and ambient dry air will
likely keep Harvey's remnants from regenerating into a tropical
cyclone in the near term.  For that reason, the solutions shown by
the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET appear most reasonable, keeping the
system as an open wave, or possibly regenerating to a tropical
depression before it reaches Belize and the Yucatan coast.
Regeneration is also possible if the remnants emerge over the Bay
of Campeche.

The remnants of Harvey will be monitored for signs of regeneration
and for the possibility of bringing tropical storm conditions to
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days.  If necessary, advisories could be resumed and tropical storm
watches or warnings issued before Harvey regains tropical cyclone
status.  Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for
this system's potential to regenerate into a tropical cyclone,
beginning with the 2 AM issuance on Sunday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 14.3N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF HARVEY
 12H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Remnants of Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017

000
FONT14 KNHC 200232
PWSAT4
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3     
NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS
...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                                                
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Summary for Remnants of Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 14.3, -71.8 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Remnants of Harvey Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Harvey Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of the
remnants of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Harvey were located near
latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.8 West.  The tropical wave
associated with Harvey's remnants is moving quickly toward the west
near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion will continue for the
next day or two.  The remnants are expected to move westward across
the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday and across the western Caribbean
Sea toward Central America on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs or if tropical
cyclone watches or warnings are required for land areas.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Remnants of Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 200231
TCMAT4

REMNANTS OF HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
REMNANTS OF HARVEY.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  71.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  71.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  70.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  71.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS OR IF TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR LAND AREAS.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Hace 10 horas 41 mins

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the central
Caribbean Sea.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a trough of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida around the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing a large area of cloudiness but limited
showers and thunderstorms. The wave is currently embedded in a
dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
strong to support development in a couple of days. Therefore,
tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 21:39
Tropical Depression Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:39:38 GMT

Tropical Depression Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 21:24:04 GMT
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 10

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 21:34
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 192034
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear.  The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone.  Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression.  Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.

The intensity forecast is problematic.  The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening.  On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.

The initial motion remains 275/19.  There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track.   A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight.  At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 14.1N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 14.3N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 14.6N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 15.2N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 16.0N  83.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 18.0N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  24/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 21:34
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

000
FONT14 KNHC 192033
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   2(24)   X(24)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  20(26)   X(26)   X(26)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 21:34
...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 14.1, -70.0 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 10

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 21:34
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 192033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey.  Watches may be
required for portions of these areas tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days,
and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 10

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 21:33
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 192033
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.  WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  70.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  70.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  69.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N  73.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N  77.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N  80.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N  83.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 18:46

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over the central Caribbean Sea.

A trough of low pressure located about 250 miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while
the system system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Conditions may become a little more conducive early next week while
the system is near the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about
midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is producing some
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next day or
two while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 15:56
Tropical Storm Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:56:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 15:26:20 GMT
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 9

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 15:49
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 191449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

Harvey has become less organized in visible imagery since this
time yesterday, with the convective pattern becoming elongated and
the circulation looking less well defined.  In addition, an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft could not close the
circulation at 850 mb, but was able to close the circulation at 1000
ft.  The plane has not yet reported tropical-storm-force winds, but
the northwestern quadrant was not well sampled.  Thus, the initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 275/19.  A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast
westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36-48 hours.
Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of
Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey should
pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross
Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, and
based on this the new forecast track follows the guidance with only
minor changes from the previous track.

The ongoing moderate vertical shear should continue for another
12-24 h or so, and combined with the current lack of organization
should allow at best only slow strengthening.  After that, the
upper-level winds are expected to become favorable for strengthening
as the system moves over the deep warm waters of the western
Caribbean.  The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in
calling for a peak intensity of 60 kt just before the system
reaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula.  Harvey should weaken as it
crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula between 72-96
h, followed by some re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche.  It
should be noted that any additional loss of organization in the next
12-24 h would result in the cyclone degenerating into an easterly
wave.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 13.9N  68.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 14.4N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 14.9N  78.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 15.7N  82.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 17.5N  88.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 19.0N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 19.5N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 15:48
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   8(33)   1(34)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  33(35)   1(36)   X(36)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»

Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

National Hurricane Center (Atlántico) - Sáb, 2017/08/19 - 15:47
...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 13.9, -68.1 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Categorías: Gaia «chunga»
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